Over their last three T20 World Cup meetings, Pakistan have a better collective batting average than India (28.26 vs 18.69) and have scored marginally quicker too (7.33 per over vs 7.28). Pakistan's bowlers have taken 21 wickets to India's 15. On net run rate, there's a pretty clear winner.

It doesn't matter, of course. India won two of those three games, and a slew of others in between. They go into Sunday's game with a better side, who have won their last five against Pakistan and their last 10 overall in T20 World Cups in a run that includes an unbeaten romp to the 2024 trophy.

But it matters in one way - it gives Pakistan a reason to believe, because in the currency of runs, run rate, and wickets, they have gone toe-to-toe with India in T20 World Cup games this decade.

Much is made of Pakistan's perceived inability to turn up against India, but measured against each side's respective position in the rankings and cricket's food chain, they have arguably done the opposite in T20 World Cup matches. Indeed, Pakistan may wonder how they aren't going into this game having won all each of these last three World Cup clashes. The 10-wicket win in Dubai in 2021 was followed by matches in Melbourne and New York that Pakistan dominated for large periods, before India ultimately held their nerve under pressure.

As such, assuming Pakistan won't be competitive is to believe in an aberration to the trend set over the last six years. The very nature of India-Pakistan games lend to them the ineffable stakes of a cup final, outside the context of the tournament that platforms them. With the sides only playing each other in premium competitions, analysing them through the conventional prism of form and rankings is tricky. India captain

Suryakumar Yadav has downplayed the merits of calling it a rivalry in the past, but acknowledged on Saturday that there would be "butterflies in the stomach".

"You can say what you want like it is just another game," he said. "But you know which game you are going to play."

Aside from the occasion, though, Pakistan have more grounded reasons to hope. For one, they have all the advantages that India possessed at the Champions Trophy last year, sticking to one venue while other teams contend with incessant travel. Pakistan captain Salman Agha said Colombo felt like "a second home" to his side, and the R Premadasa Stadium, which hosts Sunday's big clash, is one that is especially likely to assist their varied slew of spin bowlers. Those slower bowlers will be especially interested by India's cagey performance in such conditions against USA, and will back themselves to exploit any further jitters.

Despite Pakistan nearly not playing this match at all, they have arguably spent the period since the Champions Trophy preparing for it, playing more T20Is than any other side (41) in this time. They might have lost three against India, but they've won six and drawn one of their other eight series in this period. Agha appears to have finally found his hitting straps, Saim Ayub is the world's No. 1 allrounder in T20Is, and Sahibzada Farhan has shown he is undaunted against this opposition in particular.

And, of course, Pakistan retain the freedom of the underdog. They know they are much less fancied, and while two points are on the line for both teams, India have more to lose. They haven't lost a World Cup game since 2022, and by the time the lights turn off in Colombo, it would be a shock to see that change. But Pakistan tend to play up or down to the level of opposition they face, and when that elasticity allows them to compete with the very top, it can be a sight to behold. 2021 showed that, and 2022 and 2024 demonstrated why we still tune in, in our hundreds of millions.